The Red Sox passed the quarter pole mark of the 2015 marathon, and the results haven't been pretty. You don't need a Ph.D. in baseball to recognize mediocrity and the Red Sox haven't quite met that metric.
John Farrell's extension came as a cruel joke to Red Sox fans, and Farrell's 2013 championship may show up in a redo of Malcolm Gladwell's "Outliers". The chapter might be called, "10,000 Years" instead of "10,000 Hours" as it may take the Sox a hundred centuries to win another championship with "John Wayne" Farrell.
The "Five Aces" pitching staff hasn't been Five Arces, but overall the rotation has disappointed even fans of 'average'. Recently, Rick Porcello's performance make Whitey Bulger look like Mother Teresa as far as grand theft goes, Clay Buchholz remains an enigma, and the Cardinals' wise exile of Joe Kelly looks even better this season. Wade Miley has turned around his initial woes and maybe Triple A promotions Steven Wright and Eduardo Rodriguez can reshuffle the deck.
The only way a Red Sox position player makes the All-Star team is via a "Lifetime Achievement" award. David Ortiz needs a trip to the Fountain of Youth and steady Dustin Pedroia hasn't outperformed Jason Kipnis or Jose Altuve. He has surpassed the surprising decline of Robinson Cano and Stephen Drew has proven the past couple of years of failure wasn't a fluke.
The good news for Red Sox fans is what? Fans of younger players can watch the struggles of Bogaerts and Betts, the efforts of sparkplug Brock Holt, and hope the offense can 'mean revert' to competence after an indifferent first quarter. Eleventh (of fifteen) in runs scored and fourteenth in ERA converges with the Sox' last place standing in the AL East.
What's even worse is that Sox for the most part have played boring baseball. When lifelong baseball fans watch the NBA playoffs every night and sitcom reruns instead of the locals, baseball has to examine more than the length of games.
Thursday, May 28, 2015
Sunday, May 10, 2015
Death by a Thousand Cuts, Self-Inflicted Demise of the Boston Red Sox
"The lady doth protest too much, methinks." - Hamlet
Everyone "loses their fastball", figuratively if not literally. We know from watching baseball for fifty plus years that greatness is borne of balance not excess. Yes, there are exceptions (the pitching rich 1969 Mets stand as prime example), but teams constructed to be offensive juggernauts (Air Coryell fans speak up here) don't wind up holding the trophy.
Of course we're talking about team sports, not individual contests where a handful of individuals - Usain Bolt, Michael Phelps, Secretariat - put up 'silly' numbers.
All of which brings us to the Boston Red Sox, on the fast track to go last, champion, last, and last. Just as on Sesame Street, "one of these things doesn't belong." The Sox had incredibly good fortune, clutch hitting, and statistically aberrant performance from closer Koji Uehara to seal the deal in 2013. You have to wonder if somebody made a deal with the devil to deliver that championship.
Version 2015 of the Bosox looks freakishly like last year's disaster, with the team routinely trailing early, lacking energy, and becoming unwatchable. It's like having a portfolio of stocks that reports bad earnings, CFOs quitting, and changing their product line every quarter.
To make matters worse, management looks short of a few gorilla suits, signing Ben Cherington and John Farrell to extensions, saddled with long-term deals for guys unproven in the American League (Allen Craig, Wade Miley), and developing pitchers at the rate of improvements in Microsoft Windows.
The Commodity Genius, John Henry, looks the Commodity Tool as the fungible pieces on the Red Sox look neither fun nor able. The Sox feel destined to have to sell low on Daniel Nava and likely have to ship both Craig and starter Joe Kelly to the minors to resurrect their careers. The decline of Clay Buchholz is no less a mystery, an athlete whose zenith came early in his career and whose flashes of brilliance come with declining frequency and diminishing passion.
“There is no greater sorrow then to recall our times of joy in wretchedness.” - Dante Alighieri
You need neither books nor numbers to witness the struggles of former Redbirds on the Red Sox, as Edward Mujica is gone, and Craig and Kelly have sunk to Dante's lowest level of baseball hell. Even Daniel Bard must feel sorry for the Red Sox now.
Teams hate to part ways with two realities, unproductive players and their 'sunk costs'. Better to make excuses for the Stephen Drews of the world than to accept the 'eye test' of a player's declining arc. Few organizations adopt the Macchiavellian posture of 'better a year early than a year late' that the Patriots do, willing to jettison a Lawyer Milloy, Drew Bledsoe, or Vince Wilfork before Father Time or Aunt Jemima catch up with them.
A player or two won't salvage the Red Sox now, a team overwrought by their self-importance ("The Nation") and their home ("America's Most Beloved Ballpark"). Maybe it's the curse of Jon Lester.
Yes, the baseball season is a marathon not a sprint. You don't have to be great to start, but you have to start to be great.
Everyone "loses their fastball", figuratively if not literally. We know from watching baseball for fifty plus years that greatness is borne of balance not excess. Yes, there are exceptions (the pitching rich 1969 Mets stand as prime example), but teams constructed to be offensive juggernauts (Air Coryell fans speak up here) don't wind up holding the trophy.
Of course we're talking about team sports, not individual contests where a handful of individuals - Usain Bolt, Michael Phelps, Secretariat - put up 'silly' numbers.
All of which brings us to the Boston Red Sox, on the fast track to go last, champion, last, and last. Just as on Sesame Street, "one of these things doesn't belong." The Sox had incredibly good fortune, clutch hitting, and statistically aberrant performance from closer Koji Uehara to seal the deal in 2013. You have to wonder if somebody made a deal with the devil to deliver that championship.
Version 2015 of the Bosox looks freakishly like last year's disaster, with the team routinely trailing early, lacking energy, and becoming unwatchable. It's like having a portfolio of stocks that reports bad earnings, CFOs quitting, and changing their product line every quarter.
To make matters worse, management looks short of a few gorilla suits, signing Ben Cherington and John Farrell to extensions, saddled with long-term deals for guys unproven in the American League (Allen Craig, Wade Miley), and developing pitchers at the rate of improvements in Microsoft Windows.
The Commodity Genius, John Henry, looks the Commodity Tool as the fungible pieces on the Red Sox look neither fun nor able. The Sox feel destined to have to sell low on Daniel Nava and likely have to ship both Craig and starter Joe Kelly to the minors to resurrect their careers. The decline of Clay Buchholz is no less a mystery, an athlete whose zenith came early in his career and whose flashes of brilliance come with declining frequency and diminishing passion.
“There is no greater sorrow then to recall our times of joy in wretchedness.” - Dante Alighieri
You need neither books nor numbers to witness the struggles of former Redbirds on the Red Sox, as Edward Mujica is gone, and Craig and Kelly have sunk to Dante's lowest level of baseball hell. Even Daniel Bard must feel sorry for the Red Sox now.
Teams hate to part ways with two realities, unproductive players and their 'sunk costs'. Better to make excuses for the Stephen Drews of the world than to accept the 'eye test' of a player's declining arc. Few organizations adopt the Macchiavellian posture of 'better a year early than a year late' that the Patriots do, willing to jettison a Lawyer Milloy, Drew Bledsoe, or Vince Wilfork before Father Time or Aunt Jemima catch up with them.
A player or two won't salvage the Red Sox now, a team overwrought by their self-importance ("The Nation") and their home ("America's Most Beloved Ballpark"). Maybe it's the curse of Jon Lester.
Yes, the baseball season is a marathon not a sprint. You don't have to be great to start, but you have to start to be great.
Thursday, April 30, 2015
Feeling the Draft
Jameis Winston is going to the Bucs. Winston has an exceptional understanding of defenses, strong arm, and has won big in college. As for rape allegations, shoplifting, boorishness, and rumors of gambling issues - it's the NFL (see the expose' "Pros and Cons").
The posturing continues regarding the Mariota comings and goings. Tennessee apparently wants three number ones. Mariota is the consolation prize that the Eagles, Jets, and possibly Rams want. He makes touchdowns and controls interceptions, although fumbling has been an issue for him. With a few hours left before the draft, I'll predict that Tennessee moves the pick.
Character issues bit the Browns last year, and rumor of a Manziel renaissance seem at odds with their efforts to move up for the Oregon signal-caller. Then there's the drug test problems for Randy Gregory and Shane Ray, and who knows what with La'el Collins and his relationship to a murdered 29 year-old expectant mother. Before we get sanctimonious, two words, Aaron Hernandez.
The subplots of Mariota and the dumb as dirt guys who fail KNOWN drug tests will keep the non-Patriots parts of the draft interesting. That, plus the strategies chosen by AFC East rivals. Could the Jets take Todd Gurley at six? Will the Dolphins go after receivers to help Ryan Tannehill? Will Rex Ryan take a flyer (a foothold?) on the marijuana crowd?
As for the Patriots, anything is possible. I just finished Michael Holley's "War Room", which focused on the behind the scenes actions of the Pats, Pioli and the Chiefs, and Tom Dimitroff's Falcons. I expect the Patriots to either trade down (wouldn't another 2, 3, 4, and 7 be swell) or take the best player available. The problem with drafting receivers is they don't always meet (don't usually meet) Tom Brady's expectations. No trust, no throws.
The Globe reviews the advantages (extra year of team control) of the first round, ultimately meaning seven years of team control (including franchise tags) and potentially major savings as a result. That has to appeal to the green eyeshades in the Kraft counting house.
By the way, "War Room" totally reviews the Laurence Maroney and Chad Jackson fiasco and Belichick's overruling the scouts who questioned the work ethic of both. Why an elite athlete whose future depends on his work would be a dog totally baffles me. But we see it all the time.
Jon Gruden has a fascinating piece on ESPN about the risk choices in the first round, and there's a great chance the Patriots could get one of these question marks. After the Hernandez experience, I'd expect Collins to be off the board, but you never know.
Well, at least they'll have more fans in the seats in Chicago than at Camden Yards.
The posturing continues regarding the Mariota comings and goings. Tennessee apparently wants three number ones. Mariota is the consolation prize that the Eagles, Jets, and possibly Rams want. He makes touchdowns and controls interceptions, although fumbling has been an issue for him. With a few hours left before the draft, I'll predict that Tennessee moves the pick.
Character issues bit the Browns last year, and rumor of a Manziel renaissance seem at odds with their efforts to move up for the Oregon signal-caller. Then there's the drug test problems for Randy Gregory and Shane Ray, and who knows what with La'el Collins and his relationship to a murdered 29 year-old expectant mother. Before we get sanctimonious, two words, Aaron Hernandez.
The subplots of Mariota and the dumb as dirt guys who fail KNOWN drug tests will keep the non-Patriots parts of the draft interesting. That, plus the strategies chosen by AFC East rivals. Could the Jets take Todd Gurley at six? Will the Dolphins go after receivers to help Ryan Tannehill? Will Rex Ryan take a flyer (a foothold?) on the marijuana crowd?
As for the Patriots, anything is possible. I just finished Michael Holley's "War Room", which focused on the behind the scenes actions of the Pats, Pioli and the Chiefs, and Tom Dimitroff's Falcons. I expect the Patriots to either trade down (wouldn't another 2, 3, 4, and 7 be swell) or take the best player available. The problem with drafting receivers is they don't always meet (don't usually meet) Tom Brady's expectations. No trust, no throws.
The Globe reviews the advantages (extra year of team control) of the first round, ultimately meaning seven years of team control (including franchise tags) and potentially major savings as a result. That has to appeal to the green eyeshades in the Kraft counting house.
By the way, "War Room" totally reviews the Laurence Maroney and Chad Jackson fiasco and Belichick's overruling the scouts who questioned the work ethic of both. Why an elite athlete whose future depends on his work would be a dog totally baffles me. But we see it all the time.
Jon Gruden has a fascinating piece on ESPN about the risk choices in the first round, and there's a great chance the Patriots could get one of these question marks. After the Hernandez experience, I'd expect Collins to be off the board, but you never know.
Well, at least they'll have more fans in the seats in Chicago than at Camden Yards.
Monday, April 20, 2015
Are You Smarter Than a Fifth Grader?
Everyone thinks they know baseball. We grew up playing baseball, watching baseball, or maybe reading about baseball. We had the "eyeball" test when looking at young players and had our own version of Sabermetrics (RBIs plus runs scored minus home runs).
The Boston Red Sox came into the 2015 season with a highly touted lineup, thanks to the addition of Hanley Ramirez, Pablo Sandoval, a healthy Dustin Pedroia, a revived Mike Napoli after sleep apnea surgery, and youngsters Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts. What could possibly go wrong?
At best, the Red Sox rotation was comprised of a melange of number three starters, and that was being charitable. News flash, "how's that working out for you?" Paying guys a lot of money doesn't make them better only richer. John Farrell's confidence boosting aside "we have five number ones", doesn't make it so.
In the post-steroid era, the Red Sox early season ERA is over 2 runs a game below the league leader. To be fair, the strikeout to walk ratio portends better results, as this is a better predictor of ERA than ERA itself.
But going inside the numbers, i.e. starting pitching, the Red Sox look every bit as suspect as the "know-nothing" fans thought they would, with an ERA almost FOUR runs worth than league leaders, and nothing encouraging on the horizon.
Yes, it's a marathon, not a sprint, and the Sox have won three series out of four. There's no cause for pushing the panic button, but the Pollyannas pushing the 'Easy' button had better get their collective heads out of the darkness.
If you thought the Red Sox pitching was good enough to win a championship, then you're not smarter than a fifth grader. "I award you no points and may God have mercy on your soul."
The Boston Red Sox came into the 2015 season with a highly touted lineup, thanks to the addition of Hanley Ramirez, Pablo Sandoval, a healthy Dustin Pedroia, a revived Mike Napoli after sleep apnea surgery, and youngsters Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts. What could possibly go wrong?
At best, the Red Sox rotation was comprised of a melange of number three starters, and that was being charitable. News flash, "how's that working out for you?" Paying guys a lot of money doesn't make them better only richer. John Farrell's confidence boosting aside "we have five number ones", doesn't make it so.
Yes, it's a marathon, not a sprint, and the Sox have won three series out of four. There's no cause for pushing the panic button, but the Pollyannas pushing the 'Easy' button had better get their collective heads out of the darkness.
If you thought the Red Sox pitching was good enough to win a championship, then you're not smarter than a fifth grader. "I award you no points and may God have mercy on your soul."
Monday, April 6, 2015
Looking Out for Number One
You can't blame John Farrell for claiming that the Red Sox have five number one starters. Inspiring confidence is one of every manager's tasks. Unfortunately, inspiring skepticism comes more easily for baseball fans.
Is pitching getting better, supporting Farrell's claim or is hitting worsening? We know that strikeouts as a percentage of outs has risen and that runs scored is falling. Is pitching dominance the cause or the decline associated with random drug testing for PEDs.
Run scoring, via SportingCharts.com
Strikeouts, from the Society of American Baseball Research
Certainly, we can wonder if the changing use of relief pitchers (see Kansas City Royals and this year's New York Yankees) is and will be the most important factor, but we have to wonder to what extent it is the dominant cause.
What can't be in dispute is that compared with watching "continuous action sports" like basketball and hockey or gladiatorial spectacle (the National Football League), baseball has become tedious. Maybe our concern shouldn't be whether the Red Sox have a number one, but whether watching baseball has much merit at all.
Is pitching getting better, supporting Farrell's claim or is hitting worsening? We know that strikeouts as a percentage of outs has risen and that runs scored is falling. Is pitching dominance the cause or the decline associated with random drug testing for PEDs.
Certainly, we can wonder if the changing use of relief pitchers (see Kansas City Royals and this year's New York Yankees) is and will be the most important factor, but we have to wonder to what extent it is the dominant cause.
What can't be in dispute is that compared with watching "continuous action sports" like basketball and hockey or gladiatorial spectacle (the National Football League), baseball has become tedious. Maybe our concern shouldn't be whether the Red Sox have a number one, but whether watching baseball has much merit at all.
Tuesday, March 31, 2015
Red Sox Predictions
As we move toward the cusp of the baseball season, what are the prospects for the local 10, the Boston Red Sox. After all, with the designated hitter, the starting lineup is really ten, not nine players.
Why would the sum of the parts be so far superior to the parts?
ESPN has recently been listing the top players by position and to be fair it's projection not fact. Position by position, how do the Red Sox fair amidst the top 10 at each position (by memory).
Catcher - not applicable
First base - Napoli not in the top ten.
Second base - Pedroia listed at five
Shortstop - Bogaerts not listed
Third base - Sandoval at seven
Left field - Ramirez at five
Center - Betts not listed in top ten
Right field - Victorino not listed (probably not as good as Castillo at this point)
Starters - none listed (right or left handed)
Relievers - none listed (BTW Betances and Andrew Miller in the top 10)
DH - Ortiz listed first
With Vasquez out, catcher is more likely to be a weakness than strength, pending the eventual promotion of Swihart.
Napoli has had a strong spring after returning from reconstructive jaw surgery to treat obstructive sleep apnea. In a contract year, he will be motivated. Pedroia is Pedroia, burning to be better. Bogaerts should be on the rise after his shabby treatment by the water carriers for Stephen Drew last season. Sandoval should be better than last year's hot corner production.
In the outfield, Ramirez, Betts, and anybody should be better than last season's unproductive Red Sox outfield. The biggest question is when the incumbent breaks down in right field, when he starts complaining (contract year), and how this affects the team.
At my age, I'm incapable of remembering any team that won without stud starting pitchers, whether it was the Miracle Mets with Tom Seaver and Jerry Koosman or 2014 with the Miracle Madison (Bumgarner). When the Red Sox have won, they got great work from starting pitching and equally great work from the bullpen.
The Red Sox starting rotation is questionable at best, with Porcello the lead dog, Miley 'better than you think', Buchholz unreliable, Masterson vulnerable to left-handed hitting, and Kelly's health a mystery. With health issues at closer, and the attendant role shifts that follow, the Red Sox bullpen has more question marks than Frank Gorshin's "Riddler" on Batman, and John Farrell either a genius (2013) or Chump-dog Millionaire (2014).
At least by comparison with 2014, when the team was virtually unwatchable, this season deserves attention if not scrutiny. I'll say that the Sox don't make the playoffs, that the pitching staff is the predominant reason, and we'll sing "Wait 'til Next Year'.
Why would the sum of the parts be so far superior to the parts?
ESPN has recently been listing the top players by position and to be fair it's projection not fact. Position by position, how do the Red Sox fair amidst the top 10 at each position (by memory).
Catcher - not applicable
First base - Napoli not in the top ten.
Second base - Pedroia listed at five
Shortstop - Bogaerts not listed
Third base - Sandoval at seven
Left field - Ramirez at five
Center - Betts not listed in top ten
Right field - Victorino not listed (probably not as good as Castillo at this point)
Starters - none listed (right or left handed)
Relievers - none listed (BTW Betances and Andrew Miller in the top 10)
DH - Ortiz listed first
With Vasquez out, catcher is more likely to be a weakness than strength, pending the eventual promotion of Swihart.
Napoli has had a strong spring after returning from reconstructive jaw surgery to treat obstructive sleep apnea. In a contract year, he will be motivated. Pedroia is Pedroia, burning to be better. Bogaerts should be on the rise after his shabby treatment by the water carriers for Stephen Drew last season. Sandoval should be better than last year's hot corner production.
In the outfield, Ramirez, Betts, and anybody should be better than last season's unproductive Red Sox outfield. The biggest question is when the incumbent breaks down in right field, when he starts complaining (contract year), and how this affects the team.
At my age, I'm incapable of remembering any team that won without stud starting pitchers, whether it was the Miracle Mets with Tom Seaver and Jerry Koosman or 2014 with the Miracle Madison (Bumgarner). When the Red Sox have won, they got great work from starting pitching and equally great work from the bullpen.
The Red Sox starting rotation is questionable at best, with Porcello the lead dog, Miley 'better than you think', Buchholz unreliable, Masterson vulnerable to left-handed hitting, and Kelly's health a mystery. With health issues at closer, and the attendant role shifts that follow, the Red Sox bullpen has more question marks than Frank Gorshin's "Riddler" on Batman, and John Farrell either a genius (2013) or Chump-dog Millionaire (2014).
At least by comparison with 2014, when the team was virtually unwatchable, this season deserves attention if not scrutiny. I'll say that the Sox don't make the playoffs, that the pitching staff is the predominant reason, and we'll sing "Wait 'til Next Year'.
Thursday, March 5, 2015
No Sentimentality
The New England Patriots declined the option on nose tackle Vince Wilfork. The two-time Super Bowl winner tweeted that out to his fans.
Anyone familiar with the Patriots and Robert Kraft's business model understood that an 8.9 million dollar cap for a 34 year-old nose tackle was an imbalance of biblical proportions. Wilfork's value to the organization was about toughness, dependability, and leadership at this point, more than production in the "Pro Football Focus" metric.
The Patriots have shown on numerous occasions (Lawyer Milloy, Wes Welker prominently) their willingness to move on from CONTRACTS they don't like. As fans, we have trouble distinguishing sentimental (endowment bias) from the abstract football value. The Patriots assign a number to everyone's production and adhere to it. When they've departed from that approach (e.g. Welker's 9+ million franchise tag), they've had buyer's remorse.
What's anyone's value? I'm sure that someone can put a 'tag' on my value as a physician, part-time basketball coach, market analyst, writer and blogger. I'm not delusional enough to think the number would be that high. It's harder to make those judgments if measured as a father, spouse, and sibling...because of the usual intangibles.
People spend thousands of dollars for some trinket from a celebrity or a piece of toast resembling the Shroud of Turin. Value is what you get and price is what you pay.
Of course, after testing the free agent waters, Mr. Wilfork may decide that he prefers to live and work here, do the good community work he and his family do, and swallow some pride and leave dollars on the table. At the end of the day, I know that he will do what is right for himself and his family.
But let's not confuse players getting paid with greed. Is anyone calling Robert Kraft greedy for being among the lowest in NFL cash payers the past few seasons or moving up 200 spots to 381 on the Forbes' gazillionaire list? Owners and entrepreneurs sometimes are held to a different standard than workers, even those highly paid professional athletes.
If the Wilforks depart, then we should miss them, for their passion, their consistency, and their authenticity.
Anyone familiar with the Patriots and Robert Kraft's business model understood that an 8.9 million dollar cap for a 34 year-old nose tackle was an imbalance of biblical proportions. Wilfork's value to the organization was about toughness, dependability, and leadership at this point, more than production in the "Pro Football Focus" metric.
The Patriots have shown on numerous occasions (Lawyer Milloy, Wes Welker prominently) their willingness to move on from CONTRACTS they don't like. As fans, we have trouble distinguishing sentimental (endowment bias) from the abstract football value. The Patriots assign a number to everyone's production and adhere to it. When they've departed from that approach (e.g. Welker's 9+ million franchise tag), they've had buyer's remorse.
What's anyone's value? I'm sure that someone can put a 'tag' on my value as a physician, part-time basketball coach, market analyst, writer and blogger. I'm not delusional enough to think the number would be that high. It's harder to make those judgments if measured as a father, spouse, and sibling...because of the usual intangibles.
People spend thousands of dollars for some trinket from a celebrity or a piece of toast resembling the Shroud of Turin. Value is what you get and price is what you pay.
Of course, after testing the free agent waters, Mr. Wilfork may decide that he prefers to live and work here, do the good community work he and his family do, and swallow some pride and leave dollars on the table. At the end of the day, I know that he will do what is right for himself and his family.
But let's not confuse players getting paid with greed. Is anyone calling Robert Kraft greedy for being among the lowest in NFL cash payers the past few seasons or moving up 200 spots to 381 on the Forbes' gazillionaire list? Owners and entrepreneurs sometimes are held to a different standard than workers, even those highly paid professional athletes.
If the Wilforks depart, then we should miss them, for their passion, their consistency, and their authenticity.
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