Red Sox Predictions

As we move toward the cusp of the baseball season, what are the prospects for the local 10, the Boston Red Sox. After all, with the designated hitter, the starting lineup is really ten, not nine players.

Why would the sum of the parts be so far superior to the parts?

ESPN has recently been listing the top players by position and to be fair it's projection not fact. Position by position, how do the Red Sox fair amidst the top 10 at each position (by memory).

Catcher - not applicable
First base - Napoli not in the top ten.
Second base - Pedroia listed at five
Shortstop - Bogaerts not listed
Third base - Sandoval at seven
Left field - Ramirez at five
Center - Betts not listed in top ten
Right field - Victorino not listed (probably not as good as Castillo at this point)
Starters - none listed (right or left handed)
Relievers - none listed (BTW Betances and Andrew Miller in the top 10)
DH - Ortiz listed first

With Vasquez out, catcher is more likely to be a weakness than strength, pending the eventual promotion of Swihart.

Napoli has had a strong spring after returning from reconstructive jaw surgery to treat obstructive sleep apnea. In a contract year, he will be motivated. Pedroia is Pedroia, burning to be better. Bogaerts should be on the rise after his shabby treatment by the water carriers for Stephen Drew last season. Sandoval should be better than last year's hot corner production.

In the outfield, Ramirez, Betts, and anybody should be better than last season's unproductive Red Sox outfield. The biggest question is when the incumbent breaks down in right field, when he starts complaining (contract year), and how this affects the team.

At my age, I'm incapable of remembering any team that won without stud starting pitchers, whether it was the Miracle Mets with Tom Seaver and Jerry Koosman or 2014 with the Miracle Madison (Bumgarner). When the Red Sox have won, they got great work from starting pitching and equally great work from the bullpen.

The Red Sox starting rotation is questionable at best, with Porcello the lead dog, Miley 'better than you think', Buchholz unreliable, Masterson vulnerable to left-handed hitting, and Kelly's health a mystery. With health issues at closer, and the attendant role shifts that follow, the Red Sox bullpen has more question marks than Frank Gorshin's "Riddler" on Batman, and John Farrell either a genius (2013) or Chump-dog Millionaire (2014).

At least by comparison with 2014, when the team was virtually unwatchable, this season deserves attention if not scrutiny. I'll say that the Sox don't make the playoffs, that the pitching staff is the predominant reason, and we'll sing "Wait 'til Next Year'.

No Sentimentality

The New England Patriots declined the option on nose tackle Vince Wilfork. The two-time Super Bowl winner tweeted that out to his fans.

Anyone familiar with the Patriots and Robert Kraft's business model understood that an 8.9 million dollar cap for a 34 year-old nose tackle was an imbalance of biblical proportions. Wilfork's value to the organization was about toughness, dependability, and leadership at this point, more than production in the "Pro Football Focus" metric.

The Patriots have shown on numerous occasions (Lawyer Milloy, Wes Welker prominently) their willingness to move on from CONTRACTS they don't like. As fans, we have trouble distinguishing sentimental (endowment bias) from the abstract football value. The Patriots assign a number to everyone's production and adhere to it. When they've departed from that approach (e.g. Welker's 9+ million franchise tag), they've had buyer's remorse.

What's anyone's value? I'm sure that someone can put a 'tag' on my value as a physician, part-time basketball coach, market analyst, writer and blogger. I'm not delusional enough to think the number would be that high. It's harder to make those judgments if measured as a father, spouse, and sibling...because of the usual intangibles.

People spend thousands of dollars for some trinket from a celebrity or a piece of toast resembling the Shroud of Turin. Value is what you get and price is what you pay.

Of course, after testing the free agent waters, Mr. Wilfork may decide that he prefers to live and work here, do the good community work he and his family do, and swallow some pride and leave dollars on the table. At the end of the day, I know that he will do what is right for himself and his family.

But let's not confuse players getting paid with greed. Is anyone calling Robert Kraft greedy for being among the lowest in NFL cash payers the past few seasons or moving up 200 spots to 381 on the Forbes' gazillionaire list? Owners and entrepreneurs sometimes are held to a different standard than workers, even those highly paid professional athletes.

If the Wilforks depart, then we should miss them, for their passion, their consistency, and their authenticity.

Football in Mouth

Football season concludes but the discussion only begins.

First, I'm not engaged in the "best ever" narrative. Yes, Tom Brady has his four Super Bowl wins, three Super Bowl MVPs, and he's done it in the free agency, salary cap era. Some argue that he had the Belichick advantage, which totally forgets the historical contribution of Bill Walsh as both a coach and offensive innovator, and the brilliance of Chuck Noll.

Does the Montana-Brady debate really matter? We're not talking Ruth and Aaron versus steroid-addled sluggers. On the other hand, Brady has largely closed out the Brady-Manning debate. Sure, you have some teammate loyalists like Von Miller who insist that Manning is better, but the final arbiter of that discussion is Brady's dominance in the post-season. Forget about the fact that most of Manning's career was spent in the comfort of domes or that he was surrounded with superior receivers, when crunch time has come, Manning has far too often failed, with last year's Super Bowl performance a 'tail between the legs' embarrassment.

Meanwhile, Billy Madison, er, Johnny "College Football" Manziel goes to rehab. Apparently, it's a special Billy Madison like rehab, designed to help you grow up and become a better person, a better friend, and a better teammate. Up to this time, Manziel went to the "Five Minute Leadership" course, and left early. Everyone has their demons, and we can't know whether substance abuse is the cause or simply a symptom of the Manziel's extended adolescence. The problem for Browns fans is that you can't separate the athletic component from the emotional, psychological, and 'spiritual' (if you like) needs imposed on NFL quarterbacks. Sports fans will embrace effort and performance, but heretofore as a professional, Manziel has been Bozo not Romo, more Vince Young than Steve Young.

The Turtle Walks on the Clouds

The Patriots stand at the cutting edge of football philosophy, theory, and technology. We spoke with Patriots "football communications" director Harlan Thunder Eagle.

DSP: "What history brought you to the New England Patriots?"

HTE: "Thank you for asking me here today. Like all teams, the Patriots are interested in secure communications between the sidelines and the players. As you know, NFL teams transmit offensive and defensive signals electronically via specially designed helmets. The Patriots look for redundancy in communications security. I have expertise in secure communications."

DSP: "Can you elaborate?"

HTE: "You're familiar with the movie "Wind Talkers?" During World War II, the Marines recruited Native Americans to facilitate speedy, reliable, and 'unbreakable' communications. Several of the Native American languages have unique grammar and syntex, understandable only to a very few outside of native speakers. For example, if you wanted to represent "football", you might use the word "turtle" or call a blitz using the Navajo words for "red dog."

DSP: "Fascinating. And if you wanted to transmit the message to remove air from a football?"

HTE: "That would take some imagination, Doc. I suppose we might combine the words "cloud" and "turtle" or a brief sentence, "the turtle walks on the clouds." That's never really come up."

DSP: "Is this reflected in the Patriots' playbook?"

HTE: "As you know, Navajo is not a written language. So, even discussing a written representation of the signs and symbols we use really has no meaning. You hear discussion about football having its own language, and we believe that to be quite literally true.

DSP: Can you give me an example of a play call? Let's say you want to send Gronk on a deep fly pattern. What might you say?

HTE: We would have a unique name for Gronk. We could choose any animal, but let's say we chose "white buffalo." We could use a bird to signify pass or a weapon or even a type of weather, all of which could change from game to game or quarter to quarter. So deep pass could be 'buffalo wind' or 'buffalo arrowhead' or 'buffalo falcon'. It's very flexible, variable, and of course, we would be using the Navajo for buffalo, not "Y" or "H" or Gronk."

DSP: "You're not in Kansas anymore, Mr. Thunder Eagle."

HTE: "True happiness comes only to those who dedicate their lives to the service of others."

Secret Weapons of the New England Patriots

Yes, they've done it again. The Patriots have used subterfuge, deception, and sleight of hand to advance to the Super Bowl.

There's no way that the Declining Duo (Belichick and Brady) could possibly extend their incredible lucky streak through preparation, practice, and execution. The Patriots didn't cheat through advanced imaging techniques, manipulating the weather, contrived formations, or even by changing game conditions by tilting the playing surface by adjusting football air pressure. No, something far more nefarious was at work.

At the secret New England Patriot unicorn breeding and training facility, the Krafts use their "invisible hand" to change the course of history once again. Threatened by their perpetual rivals (Broncos) and up-and-comers (Colts), the Pats went into high gear with improved and enhanced unicorn breeding techniques.

And the results? Simply spectacular, as unicorns turned Wonder Boy Andrew Luck into a one-trick pony of sorts, with a career low passer rating of 23, no touchdowns, and a pair of picks.

The NFL promised a swift, comprehensive, and resource-intensive investigation.

What Does the Fox Say?

John Fox finds himself out of a job. There's an old saying about "great players make coaches great." But when it was accountability time for the Broncos, the coaches were gone, Peyton Manning got the injury "get out of jail free" card, and the rest of the Broncos high-priced roster got off scot free.

First, to paraphrase a famous NFL quarterback's equally famous wife, John Fox might say, "I can't call the pass plays and throw the ball, too." Peyton Manning's 2 for 12 completion record on passes beyond fifteen yards can't be dismissed in the Colts' upset of the Big Horses. Is John Fox accountable for Manning's injury, for Manning's contract, or Manning's uneven (11-13) playoff record? No, no, and only a little.

Manning is an unquestionable Hall of Fame quarterback, among the top half a dozen all-time, but at some point, the "What Have You Done for Me Lately" refrain has to get played. It's not like the Broncos won't sell out without him, and to say Manning is on the back nine of his career is beyond generous.

Wes Welker's career in Denver also proven inconsistent. Like most, I speculate that the cumulative (literal) impact of too many hits and concussions reduced his effectiveness. Welker had a wonderful career, but his 2014/2015 campaign certainly wasn't close to his sizable payday.

Aqib Talib is a ProBowl corner, but got schooled by T.Y. Hilton. That happens in the NFL, where talent meets talented every Sunday.

The reality for Fox is that there are only two kinds of coaches, active and destined to be fired. I haven't seen a lot of criticism for John Elway, and I'm not sure there will be. Elway loaded up and the Broncos went for it, but an aging, injured, and ineffective Manning got outdueled by his Indianapolis replacement. Irony resides for Fox that he was the beneficiary and the casualty of the vicissitudes of Peyton Manning's effectiveness.

Hall Pass

This week we got several newly minted Cooperstown selectees - Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, John Smoltz, and Craig Biggio. Meanwhile, far better players than the latter, tainted with the stain of presumptive PED use, specifically Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens get shut out, likely for eternity.

Maybe personality contaminates part of the process. Neither Bonds nor Clemens were universally loved. Greatness often carries arrogance as excess baggage. One need not review the numbers for either, staggering as they are amidst baseball pantheon of stars. Bonds' and Clemens' statistical achievements are Nintendo-like compared to mere mortals.

Maybe it gets back to the 'appearance' of Hall of Famers.

Young A's slugger Mark McGwire (Bruce Banner). 

Veteran Cardinals' slugger McGwire (The Incredible Hulk).

We want our heroes to carry themselves in a certain way, apparently something less than the cartoonish metamorphosis that transformed excellent players into superheroes or super freaks, depending on your point of view.

Baseball doesn't want a separate "Steroid Wing" in Cooperstown. But let's not pretend that sports are as American as apple pie and motherhood. Have you ever had a bad piece of apple pie? I confess that I've had an occasional experience there. But perhaps baseball needs a separate wing, where the "usual suspects" are recognized/scrutinized.

You know who's who on the above list. Sammy Sosa can't carry Frank Robinson's shoes. McGwire versus Killebrew? Puh-lease. I believe that Barry Bonds would have made this list without "the cream and the clear." But the last time I checked, Rafael Palmeiro averaged something like fifteen homers a year for his first five full seasons. His career numbers suggest that a 'good' chess player suddenly became a Grandmaster. I'm not buying that bill of goods.

But how do we resolve the inflated numbers, the misrepresentation or overrepresentation of juiced (or allegedly so) cheaters?

I would have favored an "amnesty" program for those who acknowledged cheating. "If you cheating, you ain't trying." In the Age of Cheaters, being a juicer wasn't really 'outlier' stuff. The Best of the Juicers still were the best of their era, or so that argument goes. But the first part of redemption is admitting you cheated.

Let's face it, this isn't about solving world hunger, Middle East peace, or even agreeing on Global Warming. Whether Jeff Bagwell belongs in the Hall is a pleasant distraction (four homers one season in AA), not redacted CIA data. But I'm coming around to thinking that Bonds and Clemens belong in Cooperstown (and Pete Rose the player), even if it means having a separate exhibit detailing the sordid details of the Steroid Era.