Red Sox Predictions

As we move toward the cusp of the baseball season, what are the prospects for the local 10, the Boston Red Sox. After all, with the designated hitter, the starting lineup is really ten, not nine players.

Why would the sum of the parts be so far superior to the parts?

ESPN has recently been listing the top players by position and to be fair it's projection not fact. Position by position, how do the Red Sox fair amidst the top 10 at each position (by memory).

Catcher - not applicable
First base - Napoli not in the top ten.
Second base - Pedroia listed at five
Shortstop - Bogaerts not listed
Third base - Sandoval at seven
Left field - Ramirez at five
Center - Betts not listed in top ten
Right field - Victorino not listed (probably not as good as Castillo at this point)
Starters - none listed (right or left handed)
Relievers - none listed (BTW Betances and Andrew Miller in the top 10)
DH - Ortiz listed first

With Vasquez out, catcher is more likely to be a weakness than strength, pending the eventual promotion of Swihart.

Napoli has had a strong spring after returning from reconstructive jaw surgery to treat obstructive sleep apnea. In a contract year, he will be motivated. Pedroia is Pedroia, burning to be better. Bogaerts should be on the rise after his shabby treatment by the water carriers for Stephen Drew last season. Sandoval should be better than last year's hot corner production.

In the outfield, Ramirez, Betts, and anybody should be better than last season's unproductive Red Sox outfield. The biggest question is when the incumbent breaks down in right field, when he starts complaining (contract year), and how this affects the team.

At my age, I'm incapable of remembering any team that won without stud starting pitchers, whether it was the Miracle Mets with Tom Seaver and Jerry Koosman or 2014 with the Miracle Madison (Bumgarner). When the Red Sox have won, they got great work from starting pitching and equally great work from the bullpen.

The Red Sox starting rotation is questionable at best, with Porcello the lead dog, Miley 'better than you think', Buchholz unreliable, Masterson vulnerable to left-handed hitting, and Kelly's health a mystery. With health issues at closer, and the attendant role shifts that follow, the Red Sox bullpen has more question marks than Frank Gorshin's "Riddler" on Batman, and John Farrell either a genius (2013) or Chump-dog Millionaire (2014).

At least by comparison with 2014, when the team was virtually unwatchable, this season deserves attention if not scrutiny. I'll say that the Sox don't make the playoffs, that the pitching staff is the predominant reason, and we'll sing "Wait 'til Next Year'.

No Sentimentality

The New England Patriots declined the option on nose tackle Vince Wilfork. The two-time Super Bowl winner tweeted that out to his fans.

Anyone familiar with the Patriots and Robert Kraft's business model understood that an 8.9 million dollar cap for a 34 year-old nose tackle was an imbalance of biblical proportions. Wilfork's value to the organization was about toughness, dependability, and leadership at this point, more than production in the "Pro Football Focus" metric.

The Patriots have shown on numerous occasions (Lawyer Milloy, Wes Welker prominently) their willingness to move on from CONTRACTS they don't like. As fans, we have trouble distinguishing sentimental (endowment bias) from the abstract football value. The Patriots assign a number to everyone's production and adhere to it. When they've departed from that approach (e.g. Welker's 9+ million franchise tag), they've had buyer's remorse.

What's anyone's value? I'm sure that someone can put a 'tag' on my value as a physician, part-time basketball coach, market analyst, writer and blogger. I'm not delusional enough to think the number would be that high. It's harder to make those judgments if measured as a father, spouse, and sibling...because of the usual intangibles.

People spend thousands of dollars for some trinket from a celebrity or a piece of toast resembling the Shroud of Turin. Value is what you get and price is what you pay.

Of course, after testing the free agent waters, Mr. Wilfork may decide that he prefers to live and work here, do the good community work he and his family do, and swallow some pride and leave dollars on the table. At the end of the day, I know that he will do what is right for himself and his family.

But let's not confuse players getting paid with greed. Is anyone calling Robert Kraft greedy for being among the lowest in NFL cash payers the past few seasons or moving up 200 spots to 381 on the Forbes' gazillionaire list? Owners and entrepreneurs sometimes are held to a different standard than workers, even those highly paid professional athletes.

If the Wilforks depart, then we should miss them, for their passion, their consistency, and their authenticity.