Feeling the Draft

Jameis Winston is going to the Bucs. Winston has an exceptional understanding of defenses, strong arm, and has won big in college. As for rape allegations, shoplifting, boorishness, and rumors of gambling issues - it's the NFL (see the expose' "Pros and Cons").

The posturing continues regarding the Mariota comings and goings. Tennessee apparently wants three number ones. Mariota is the consolation prize that the Eagles, Jets, and possibly Rams want. He makes touchdowns and controls interceptions, although fumbling has been an issue for him. With a few hours left before the draft, I'll predict that Tennessee moves the pick.

Character issues bit the Browns last year, and rumor of a Manziel renaissance seem at odds with their efforts to move up for the Oregon signal-caller. Then there's the drug test problems for Randy Gregory and Shane Ray, and who knows what with La'el Collins and his relationship to a murdered 29 year-old expectant mother. Before we get sanctimonious, two words, Aaron Hernandez.

The subplots of Mariota and the dumb as dirt guys who fail KNOWN drug tests will keep the non-Patriots parts of the draft interesting. That, plus the strategies chosen by AFC East rivals. Could the Jets take Todd Gurley at six? Will the Dolphins go after receivers to help Ryan Tannehill? Will Rex Ryan take a flyer (a foothold?) on the marijuana crowd?

As for the Patriots, anything is possible. I just finished Michael Holley's "War Room", which focused on the behind the scenes actions of the Pats, Pioli and the Chiefs, and Tom Dimitroff's Falcons. I expect the Patriots to either trade down (wouldn't another 2, 3, 4, and 7 be swell) or take the best player available. The problem with drafting receivers is they don't always meet (don't usually meet) Tom Brady's expectations. No trust, no throws.

The Globe reviews the advantages (extra year of team control) of the first round, ultimately meaning seven years of team control (including franchise tags) and potentially major savings as a result. That has to appeal to the green eyeshades in the Kraft counting house.

By the way, "War Room" totally reviews the Laurence Maroney and Chad Jackson fiasco and Belichick's overruling the scouts who questioned the work ethic of both. Why an elite athlete whose future depends on his work  would be a dog totally baffles me. But we see it all the time.

Jon Gruden has a fascinating piece on ESPN about the risk choices in the first round, and there's a great chance the Patriots could get one of these question marks. After the Hernandez experience, I'd expect Collins to be off the board, but you never know.

Well, at least they'll have more fans in the seats in Chicago than at Camden Yards.

Are You Smarter Than a Fifth Grader?

Everyone thinks they know baseball. We grew up playing baseball, watching baseball, or maybe reading about baseball. We had the "eyeball" test when looking at young players and had our own version of Sabermetrics (RBIs plus runs scored minus home runs).

The Boston Red Sox came into the 2015 season with a highly touted lineup, thanks to the addition of Hanley Ramirez, Pablo Sandoval, a healthy Dustin Pedroia, a revived Mike Napoli after sleep apnea surgery, and youngsters Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts. What could possibly go wrong?

At best, the Red Sox rotation was comprised of a melange of number three starters, and that was being charitable. News flash, "how's that working out for you?" Paying guys a lot of money doesn't make them better only richer. John Farrell's confidence boosting aside "we have five number ones", doesn't make it so.

In the post-steroid era, the Red Sox early season ERA is over 2 runs a game below the league leader. To be fair, the strikeout to walk ratio portends better results, as this is a better predictor of ERA than ERA itself.

But going inside the numbers, i.e. starting pitching, the Red Sox look every bit as suspect as the "know-nothing" fans thought they would, with an ERA almost FOUR runs worth than league leaders, and nothing encouraging on the horizon.

Yes, it's a marathon, not a sprint, and the Sox have won three series out of four. There's no cause for pushing the panic button, but the Pollyannas pushing the 'Easy' button had better get their collective heads out of the darkness.

If you thought the Red Sox pitching was good enough to win a championship, then you're not smarter than a fifth grader. "I award you no points and may God have mercy on your soul."

Looking Out for Number One

You can't blame John Farrell for claiming that the Red Sox have five number one starters. Inspiring confidence is one of every manager's tasks. Unfortunately, inspiring skepticism comes more easily for baseball fans.

Is pitching getting better, supporting Farrell's claim or is hitting worsening? We know that strikeouts as a percentage of outs has risen and that runs scored is falling. Is pitching dominance the cause or the decline associated with random drug testing for PEDs.

 Run scoring, via SportingCharts.com

Strikeouts, from the Society of American Baseball Research

Certainly, we can wonder if the changing use of relief pitchers (see Kansas City Royals and this year's New York Yankees) is and will be the most important factor, but we have to wonder to what extent it is the dominant cause.

What can't be in dispute is that compared with watching "continuous action sports" like basketball and hockey or gladiatorial spectacle (the National Football League), baseball has become tedious. Maybe our concern shouldn't be whether the Red Sox have a number one, but whether watching baseball has much merit at all.